In short, Trump’s plan for ending the war in Gaza and initiating a gradual political transformation in the Strip and beyond is a good one - yes, you heard that right.
I don’t think Bibi is going to renege on this deal, because he’d be perceived by Trump as unforgivingly costing him a Nobel :-). And his apology to Qatar may have been part of a mutual understanding for them to pressure Hamas with expulsion and/or funding cut to end the war. Qatar wants to play a major role in the rebuilding, and it would be very difficult for them to do that with Hamas still in place there. (I do think there will be a background Qatar-Hamas deal for the terrorists to remain sub rosa.)
I am heartened that your much more informed standpoint corresponds with my reaction.
I would suggest that a pragmatist looks at this in terms of what it would achieve now -- full hostage release of all hostages held in Gaza and of all Palistinian women and children detained since Oct 7, plus men held in admin detention and several hundred convicted of crimes, including murder. Thats a lot of families, even the ones convicted, whose lives will be bettered in the immediate. The end of active military operations and gradual withdraw of Israel military forces and the establishment of an aid program is also a good thing that would happen right away. If we get even that far, it will have been a success.
The statements of principle are really important too; that Israel will withdraw military once hostages are released and Hamas has relinquired power. That it will not seek to annex areas of the West Bank or to depopulate areas of Gaza. That BN agreed to these terms suggests he is willing to put some daylight between his government and the most toxic portion of his political base.
That al-Thani is said to be on board is also potentially significant. If the government of Qatar is on board, that could suggest Hamas will have less ability to claim to accept it but then walk away as they did in July.
Also potentially significant here is the snapback sanctions this week on Iran. That could significantly limit the IRGC's ability to sustain Hamas as a military and terrorist force.
We could get be at a point where there is a real prospect that Hamas remaining senior leadership in the strip agrees to the terms and leaves subordinate Hamas "members" (vague and problematic term in actual context) and affiliated factions to disarm and participate in a peaceful transition or to depart the strip.
IF we get through that phase, and there is an actual release of the hostages, then the question is what it would mean for the IDF to transfer power to an international security force and for there to be an interim international administration.
I think this is an excellent idea; how would it work in practice is unclear. But that can be worked out later. My hope is that if things do get that far, there will be a real effort to bring into GITA the sorts of people who have a demonstrated commitment to a peaceful, prosperous future for the people of Gaza and that would, one hopes , include you.
Thanks as always for your thoughtful pragmatic optimism Ahmed. May this be the start of profound healing into a better future for all. ❤️🩹🙏
I don’t think Bibi is going to renege on this deal, because he’d be perceived by Trump as unforgivingly costing him a Nobel :-). And his apology to Qatar may have been part of a mutual understanding for them to pressure Hamas with expulsion and/or funding cut to end the war. Qatar wants to play a major role in the rebuilding, and it would be very difficult for them to do that with Hamas still in place there. (I do think there will be a background Qatar-Hamas deal for the terrorists to remain sub rosa.)
I am heartened that your much more informed standpoint corresponds with my reaction.
I would suggest that a pragmatist looks at this in terms of what it would achieve now -- full hostage release of all hostages held in Gaza and of all Palistinian women and children detained since Oct 7, plus men held in admin detention and several hundred convicted of crimes, including murder. Thats a lot of families, even the ones convicted, whose lives will be bettered in the immediate. The end of active military operations and gradual withdraw of Israel military forces and the establishment of an aid program is also a good thing that would happen right away. If we get even that far, it will have been a success.
The statements of principle are really important too; that Israel will withdraw military once hostages are released and Hamas has relinquired power. That it will not seek to annex areas of the West Bank or to depopulate areas of Gaza. That BN agreed to these terms suggests he is willing to put some daylight between his government and the most toxic portion of his political base.
That al-Thani is said to be on board is also potentially significant. If the government of Qatar is on board, that could suggest Hamas will have less ability to claim to accept it but then walk away as they did in July.
Also potentially significant here is the snapback sanctions this week on Iran. That could significantly limit the IRGC's ability to sustain Hamas as a military and terrorist force.
We could get be at a point where there is a real prospect that Hamas remaining senior leadership in the strip agrees to the terms and leaves subordinate Hamas "members" (vague and problematic term in actual context) and affiliated factions to disarm and participate in a peaceful transition or to depart the strip.
IF we get through that phase, and there is an actual release of the hostages, then the question is what it would mean for the IDF to transfer power to an international security force and for there to be an interim international administration.
I think this is an excellent idea; how would it work in practice is unclear. But that can be worked out later. My hope is that if things do get that far, there will be a real effort to bring into GITA the sorts of people who have a demonstrated commitment to a peaceful, prosperous future for the people of Gaza and that would, one hopes , include you.
Your optimism is giving me hope. I truly want this to succeed and for life in the region to improve for everyone.