My Thoughts on the Trump Gaza Plan

In short, Trump’s plan for ending the war in Gaza and initiating a gradual political transformation in the Strip and beyond is a good one - yes, you heard that right.

It is a good plan, even though the press conference between the President and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu today did not cover all the elements of the plan. A phased transitional period is a far more compelling proposition than the ubiquitously cited “day-after” plans/visions, which we have been hearing about since October 7, 2023. The proposal calls for the release of living and deceased hostages in one exchange instead of the ill-advised phases of previous truces.

The combination of an international stabilization force, a comprehensive deradicalization plan, economic rejuvenation, regeneration, Arab and international involvement, humanitarian support, capacity building, and the departure from rhetoric that proposed removing the population is a cumulatively positive framework and blueprint for managing Gaza’s future transformation.

The biggest challenge is two-fold: will Hamas accept a ceasefire that removes its chief leverage, the hostages, all at once in the first few days, and will the terror group agree to disarm or leave Gaza? So far, Hamas has stated that it has not formally seen the plan, nor has it been able to view an official proposal. Netanyahu’s apology to Qatar today, likely at Trump’s request, was probably a preparation for bringing Hamas back into the loop.

The second issue is whether Netanyahu and his government will keep their word or break the ceasefire once the hostages are retrieved. Some look at what he did in March when he decided not to pursue phase II of the truce that was initiated by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, as a warning that he might be willing to do the same thing, only this time, he won’t have the pressure of the hostage families and a large number of Israelis protesting against him.

The Trump 21-Point Plan

Then there is the question of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which the Arabs want to be involved in Gaza as a way to create that pathway toward Palestinian Statehood, something that Trump’s plan also envisions. Yet, there is a gap between Trump’s plan and Netanyahu’s rhetoric on the near future, and how he still does not expect the PA to be part of the transitional period in the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Authority and a pathway to statehood will calm Egypt and Jordan down, invite Gulf participation, enable Saudi-Israeli normalization, and open numerous pathways for Israel’s regional integration and peace between Arab and Muslim countries on one hand, and the Jewish state on the other (expanding the Abraham Accords). Trump’s promise that the annexation of the West Bank would not be formalized as a matter of Israeli policy may have been an attempt to ensure that this outcome is achieved.

Still, if the Palestinian Authority is perpetually blocked from participating in Gaza’s future, it is difficult to imagine ways in which Arab and international demands can be truly fulfilled, and how Gaza could ever be part of a cohesive Palestinian national entity. One thing is clear: this plan may very well end up being like a whole host of others preceding it, just a pile of promises with nothing substantive happening after all the media coverage and hopes for a resolution. If, however, this succeeds in ending the war, Gaza will be proven to be the critical key to unlocking regional stability, the expansion of peace, economic prosperity, US geopolitical interests, and Israel’s integration.